• Advertise
  • About us
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Contact us
Wednesday, June 25, 2025
Australian Times News
  • News
    • Weather
    • Sport
    • Technology
    • Business & Finance
      • Currency Zone
    • Lotto Results
      • The Lott
  • Lifestyle
    • Entertainment
    • Horoscopes
    • Health & Wellness
    • Recipes
  • Travel
  • Expat Life
  • Move to Australia
No Result
View All Result
  • News
    • Weather
    • Sport
    • Technology
    • Business & Finance
      • Currency Zone
    • Lotto Results
      • The Lott
  • Lifestyle
    • Entertainment
    • Horoscopes
    • Health & Wellness
    • Recipes
  • Travel
  • Expat Life
  • Move to Australia
No Result
View All Result
Australian Times News
No Result
View All Result
Home News

There’s no need for panic over China’s trade threats

China’s increasingly belligerent threats to close its markets to Australian exports have excited talk of a full-blown trade war.

The Conversation by The Conversation
12-11-2020 18:09
in News
China’s trade threats

China’s trade threats Photo by Athanasios Papazacharias on Unsplash

James Laurenceson, University of Technology Sydney

China’s increasingly belligerent threats to close its markets to Australian exports have excited talk of a full-blown trade war.

But let’s not panic. These threats are best understood as psychological warfare, not a statement of reality.

Last week Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post reported the Chinese government was set to ban Australian imports of timber, sugar, copper ore and copper concentrates, wool, lobsters, barley and wine. These markets are worth about A$6 billion a year.

The message from Chinese state media in the days before the mooted bans were supposed to take effect was loud and clear. The China Daily editorialised that “Canberra only has itself to blame” and warned the Morrison government to “steer clear of Washington’s brinkmanship with China before it is too late”.

Already this year China has taken punitive action against Australian barley, beef and possibly coal, and threatened the loss of Chinese tourists and students.

China has a history of using coercive economic pressure as a political weapon.

AlsoRead...

Leading with Trust: Why Quality still wins in the AI Era

Leading with Trust: Why Quality still wins in the AI Era

5 June 2025
Why Australian Investors are Betting on the Aviation Maverick Louis Belanger-Martin

Why Australian Investors are Betting on the Aviation Maverick Louis Belanger-Martin

28 May 2025

In 2011, for example, it restricted salmon imports from Norway after the awarding of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo. In 2012 it banned bananas from the Philippines in the wake of territorial disputes in the South China Sea. And so on.

But such pressure has been narrowly focused, and China has been careful to maintain “plausible deniability”, using excuses like food safety concerns to avoid being taken to the World Trade Organisation for flouting international trade rules.

This action against Australian exports would be unprecedented in China’s economic statecraft. It would be impossible for China to deny its motives.

Politics by other means

Though the Chinese market for the seven threatened export products is valuable, it’s important to note they represent just 4% of the A$150 billion in Australia’s exports to China in 2019-20, and less than 2% of the value of all Australian exports.

The exports that are the backbone of the Australia-China trade relationship – such as iron ore – have avoided mention. That’s for good reason. In the first nine months of 2020, China relied on Australia for 60% of its imported iron ore – crucial to make the steel needed for building bridges, factories and high-rise apartment blocks.

Iron ore is used to make steel, needed for China's massive construction projects.
Iron ore is used to make steel, needed for China’s massive construction projects. Yan Keren/AP

Still, an argument could be made that the scale of aggregate economic damage isn’t the point.

Rather, by inflicting serious harm on lobster fisherman through to winemakers, the Chinese government is seeking to turn Australian producers into lobbyists that help it achieve its foreign policy objectives.

But if that’s the intention, there’s little evidence the plan is working.

With a few high-profile exceptions, Australian business groups have been conspicuously quiet as the bilateral political relationship has deteriorated since 2017.

Coercion can backfire

Indeed a key lesson from research on economic coercion is that success is difficult to achieve. One reason is that targets take steps to make themselves less vulnerable.

Chinese threats against Australia, for example, have led to calls for Australia to diversify its export markets.

With Australian public opinion towards China continuing to plummet, there is also the prospect of hardening the Australian government’s resistance to Chinese pressure.

As political scientist Greg McCarthy (a former BHP Billiton chair of Australian studies at Peking University) has argued, the “political ballast” for the Australian government’s China policy stems in large part from the “popularised perception of a China threat to national sovereignty”.

So it isn’t surprising China appears to have hesitated in moving from threat to action. Such moves would have hurt China too.

Leaving it to business

So far the Australian government is maintaining a steady approach to the trade relationship.

On Monday federal Trade Minister Simon Birmingham noted the “rumours” of an outright blanket did not “appear to have materialised”. While there were “areas of problem and concern” such as delays in live lobster shipments being cleared through Chinese customs, he said, “we will continue to work at an administrative and diplomatic level to try to understand and resolve those points of concern”.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has maintained that judgments on trading with China “are not decisions that governments make for businesses”.

The rationale would appear to be that China’s targets for punishment will vary from sector to sector and change over time. With their own money on the line and their industry knowledge, businesses are best placed to assess developments and manage risks.

The government can certainly support those assessments by, for example, partnering with industry bodies to fund research into the risks exporters face, providing businesses with clarity on where it sees foreign policy headed and sharing insights gleaned from its diplomatic network and national security agencies.

With China’s purchasing power over the next decade forecast to grow more than that of the US, Japan, India and Indonesia combined, expect Australian businesses to craft more sophisticated strategies to manage coercive risk, rather than just looking to sell more to other markets.

Either way, Australia has less to fear from China’s trade threats than some might think.

James Laurenceson, Director and Professor, Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI), University of Technology Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Tags: SB001
DMCA.com Protection Status

SUBSCRIBE to our NEWSLETTER

[mc4wp_form id=”2384248″]

Don't Miss

From Portugal to Bali: Where Aussies Should Go for Your Next Coastal Holiday

by Fazila Olla-Logday
20 June 2025
Source: Flickr
Travel

Aussies, here is a guide to where you should go for your next coastal holiday.

Read more

Leading with Trust: Why Quality still wins in the AI Era

by Pauline Torongo
5 June 2025
Leading with Trust: Why Quality still wins in the AI Era
Business & Finance

If you're leading a software team today, you've likely noticed the shift: faster feature rollouts, routine automation, and AI taking...

Read more

How to Save on Airport Parking: Budget Tips Every Traveller Should Know

by Fazila Olla-Logday
3 June 2025
How to Save on Airport Parking
Travel

Saving money on airport parking can be a challenge,but here are some budget friendly tips to help you navigate.

Read more

Why Australian Investors are Betting on the Aviation Maverick Louis Belanger-Martin

by Pauline Torongo
28 May 2025
Why Australian Investors are Betting on the Aviation Maverick Louis Belanger-Martin
Business & Finance

Bélanger-Martin’s ambitions stretch beyond redefining inflight comfort—they’re rooted in resurrecting the romance of supersonic travel with a modern twist.

Read more

Why a Gluten Free Hamper is simply the Best Gift for a Coeliac

by Fazila Olla-Logday
22 May 2025
Gluten Free Hamper
at

Buying a thoughtful gift can be tricky at the best of times, but when someone has dietary restrictions like coeliac...

Read more

Biela.dev is quietly becoming the Infrastructure Layer for the Next Internet

by Pauline Torongo
15 May 2025
Biela.dev is quietly becoming the Infrastructure Layer for the Next Internet
Technology

Biela.dev is not merely a consumer app; it is infrastructure. It could be a layer that powers the next generation...

Read more

The Battle for the Premier League’s Fifth Champions League Spot: Who Will Prevail?

by Fazila Olla-Logday
8 May 2025
Premier-Leagues-Fifth-Champions-League-Janosch-Diggelmann-Unsplash
at

As the Premier League season nears its climax, the race for the coveted Champions League places is tighter and more...

Read more
Load More

Copyright © Blue Sky Publications Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
australiantimes.co.uk is a division of Blue Sky Publications Ltd. Reproduction without permission prohibited. DMCA.com Protection Status

  • About us
  • Write for Us
  • Advertise
  • Contact us
  • T&Cs, Privacy and GDPR
No Result
View All Result
  • News
    • Weather
    • Sport
    • Technology
    • Business & Finance
      • Currency Zone
    • Lotto Results
      • The Lott
  • Lifestyle
    • Entertainment
    • Horoscopes
    • Health & Wellness
    • Recipes
  • Travel
  • Expat Life
  • Move to Australia

Copyright © Blue Sky Publications Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
australiantimes.co.uk is a division of Blue Sky Publications Ltd. Reproduction without permission prohibited. DMCA.com Protection Status