• News
  • Lifestyle
    • Recipes
    • Video
    • Lotto Results
    • Technology
  • Entertainment
  • Travel
  • Sport
  • Expat Life
  • Move to Australia
Wednesday, February 24, 2021
Australian Times News
  • News
  • Lifestyle
    • Recipes
    • Video
    • Lotto Results
    • Technology
  • Entertainment
  • Travel
  • Sport
  • Expat Life
  • Move to Australia
No Result
View All Result
  • News
  • Lifestyle
    • Recipes
    • Video
    • Lotto Results
    • Technology
  • Entertainment
  • Travel
  • Sport
  • Expat Life
  • Move to Australia
No Result
View All Result
Australian Times News
No Result
View All Result
Home News

Momentum vs underdog status: this time the advantage is with Joe Biden

A momentum effect could benefit the candidate either leading or gaining in the polls. It can motivate their supporters to vote (the bandwagon effect) and demotivate the supporters of the other candidate (the discouragement effect).

The Conversation by The Conversation
27-10-2020 18:09
in News
Momentum vs underdog status

Momentum vs underdog status Photo by Laura Seaman on Unsplash

Lionel Page, University of Technology Sydney

Polls highly favour Joe Biden to win the US presidential election.

These polls are not just abstract information. By telling prospective voters who is the most likely to win, can they influence the result of the election by playing a role in the voters’ decision? The evidence says yes, and it most likely favours Biden.

In theory, you could imagine two possible effects of polls. First, a momentum effect. Second, an underdog effect.

A momentum effect could benefit the candidate either leading or gaining in the polls. It can motivate their supporters to vote (the bandwagon effect) and demotivate the supporters of the other candidate (the discouragement effect).


CNN’s ‘Poll of Polls’ as October 22 2020.

An underdog effect, on the other hand, could penalise the leading candidate. This is because supporters think it’s a done deal and don’t mobilise to vote (resting on their laurels) or because the supporters of the trailing candidate are motivated by the idea of losing (a back-to-the-wall effect).

These different effects tap into some of our intuitive psychology. It is therefore hard to know the net effect of polls.

AlsoRead...

mundissima/Alamy Stock Photo, CC BY-NC

After blocking Australian news, Facebook’s free speech myth is dead – and regulators should take notice

23 February 2021
Neil Hall/EPA-EFE

Lockdown roadmap: is the UK’s exit plan the right one? Three experts give their view

23 February 2021

Some evidence points to the possibility of an underdog effect when a party is just behind. This was the case in 2016, when Trump edged out Hillary Clinton in key states despite her lead in national polls. But the overwhelming message from the relevant research is that positive polls increase a candidate’s chance of winning.

Momentum effect: it helps to be ahead

In laboratory experiments recreating elections in controlled settings, California Institute of Technology economist Marina Agranov and colleagues found polls “lead to more participation by the expected majority and generate more landslide elections”.

A similar effect has been observed in real elections.

Using polling and voting data from French elections, my colleagues and I have looked at how those yet to vote were influenced by early exit polls giving a fairly precise prediction of the result.

France has the longest election day in the world, due to its overseas territories in the Pacific. When the first exit poll is released at 8pm in Paris, for example, it is just 9am in Tahiti, where people are still to decide if they will vote and for whom.

We found that knowledge of polls pointing to a certain outcome meant voters in such territories were less likely to vote. In particular, they were less likely to vote for the losing candidate. It led to a momentum effect for the leading candidate in mainland France, tending to increase their share of the vote in territories voting later.

A similar momentum effect has been discerned in Britain. Before 1918, general elections were held over a two-week period. The side ahead in the first days of the election tended to benefit from an increasing advantage, which peaked on about the eighth day of voting.

The West Coast effect

In the United States the possibility of such an effect of early information has been discussed as the “West Coast effect”, whereby voters in California and other western US states can be influenced by early results from the east coast, three hours ahead.

This issue became very salient in 1980 when NBC released an early prediction at 8pm New York time that Republican presidential candidate Ronald Reagan would beat Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter.

Ronald Reagan declares victory over incumbent Jimmy Carter on election night, November 5 1980. AP

The polls were still open in many western states at the time. Research found this early call had a discouraging effect on prospective Democrat voters, making them less likely to vote.

Given this converging evidence, it is no surprise partisan organisations tend to use favourable polls to push a winning narrative to their support base.

As a consequence of polls’ possible strategic effect, polling companies are tightly regulated in modern democracies. Polling companies do not tend to produce polls that skew results for partisan reasons. Whatever errors occur tend to be due to flaws in polling methodology, rather than being deliberate.

Manipulating betting markets

However, people who want to influence the public narrative about who is winning can influence something: betting markets.

These are used to estimate the candidates’ winning chances. On these markets, people can put their money where their mouth is, and bet on the candidate they think will win.


Betting market predictions, October 27 2020
Betting market predictions, October 27 2020. www.electionbettingodds.com

But what if someone is willing to put a lot of money on a candidate they want to win, in a bid to skew the market predictions?

There is an incentive to manipulate betting markets’ prices, to influence voters by suggesting a candidate’s prospects are better than they actually are.

Research and experiments have shown that, in theory, such markets can be manipulated to move prices in one direction.

To do so in the real world would likely require spending many millions of dollars, But given the huge amounts spent in US campaigns, such expenditure is feasible.

Trump’s chances overrated

In 2020, Trump’s chances have been surprisingly high in betting markets given the polls. What does research say about this fact?

In past research, I have found political betting markets tend to be biased toward 50%. That is, they tend to say the race is closer to 50/50 than it is. This bias is larger than on other types of betting markets (such as sports) – and would be expected if manipulators try to influence the prices.

I estimate the 35% chance these betting markets are giving to a Trump win may be skewing the results by 15 percentage points – meaning Trump more accurately has a 20% chance of victory.

For more accurate predictions, therefore, you are better looking at those from professional forecasters, such as Five Thirty Eight and The Economist. In these forecasts Trump has only 5-12% chance of winning. Importantly, Biden’s advantage appears much firmer than what Clinton had in 2016.


Forecast from The Economist: Winning chances of each candidate.

But even these predictions may be overestimated. As pointed out by one of the best forecasters in the US, Columbia University statistician Andrew Gelman, professional forecasters have an interest in hedging their bets to preserve their reputation. Importantly, the evidence suggest

These low forecasts have a striking implication. Putting money on Biden now is a relatively safe bet. It may also help move the betting market predictions in Biden’s favour.

Lionel Page, Professor in Economics, University of Technology Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Tags: SB001
DMCA.com Protection Status

SUBSCRIBE to our NEWSLETTER

Terms and Conditions

CURRENCY ZONE

Australian Forex

Don't Miss

After blocking Australian news, Facebook’s free speech myth is dead – and regulators should take notice

by The Conversation
23 February 2021
mundissima/Alamy Stock Photo, CC BY-NC
News

Facebook’s recent decision to block its Australian users from sharing or viewing news content has provoked a worldwide backlash and...

Read more

Thunderball Results for Tuesday, 23 February 2021

by Sonja Baartman
23 February 2021
Thunderball Results Lottery
Thunderball

Thunderball Lottery draw takes place tonight. Check the winning Thunderball numbers here!

Read more

EuroMillions Lottery Results Tuesday, 23rd February 2021

by Sonja Baartman
23 February 2021
Euromillions Lottery Results Numbers The National Lottery
EuroMillions

Are you one of tonight’s lucky Euromillions winners?

Read more

Lockdown roadmap: is the UK’s exit plan the right one? Three experts give their view

by The Conversation
23 February 2021
Neil Hall/EPA-EFE
News

Lifting restrictions will be split into four stages, with a minimum of five weeks between each to observe the effects...

Read more

Oz Lotto results for Tuesday, 23rd February 2021

by Sonja Baartman
23 February 2021
OZ Lotto Results - the Lott
OZ Lotto

Today’s OZ LOTTO jackpot is estimated at $10 Million! Are you Australia's newest millionaire?

Read more

Ten years on, the earthquake still casts its shadow over Christchurch’s past, present and future

by The Conversation
23 February 2021
Canterbury Earthquake National Memorial, Christchurch. GettyImages
News

Christchurch can be stereotyped as a formal, conventional city. But there is another, alternative past whose ways of living have...

Read more

JobMaker creates incentive for employers to sack full-time workers

by Mike Simpson
23 February 2021
Image by Yerson Retamal from Pixabay
News

ACTU says the scheme incentivises employers to sack older full-time workers and does nothing to address the problem of job...

Read more
Load More

Copyright © Blue Sky Publications Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
australiantimes.co.uk is a division of Blue Sky Publications Ltd. Reproduction without permission prohibited. DMCA.com Protection Status

  • About us
  • Write for Us
  • Advertise
  • Contact us
  • T&Cs, Privacy and GDPR
No Result
View All Result
  • News
  • Lifestyle
    • Recipes
    • Video
    • Lotto Results
    • Technology
  • Entertainment
  • Travel
  • Sport
  • Expat Life
  • Move to Australia

Copyright © Blue Sky Publications Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
australiantimes.co.uk is a division of Blue Sky Publications Ltd. Reproduction without permission prohibited. DMCA.com Protection Status