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The cost of the government’s delay in rolling out the Covid-19 vaccine to the Australian population is likely to exceed $1.4-billion on even the most optimistic of scenarios, according to new modelling by the McKell Institute, a Sydney-based think-tank.
Government’s initial Vaccine Roadmap plan would have reached the earliest possible measure of herd immunity (65 percent vaccination rate) by August 2021.
But delays have now blown this date out, increasing the chances of further lockdowns and restrictions, the institute says.
According to the new report entitled ‘Counting the cost of Australia’s delayed vaccine roll-out’, even if the country instantly picks up its vaccination rollout rate to mimic that of the UK – currently the second-best performer in the world – it would delay herd immunity by 116 days from the Government’s original projection.
On this forecast, Australia could expect 11.1 days of lockdown in the extra period, costing the economy some $1.4-billion.
By comparison, if the country were to instantly increase the pace of vaccination to mimic the slower rate of Germany, the delay would be 353 days, with a projected economic cost of $4.2-billion.
The McKell Institute’s Executive Director, Michael Buckland, said it was critical to lay the facts on the table. “These delays will increase the chance of lockdowns and the economic costs that come with them,” he warned.
“It’s vital we are clear-sighted about the cost and impact of a government’s action or inaction.
“Just as it was correct for the Government to measure the economic impact of state lockdowns, so too should the Government embrace the publication of clear information about the economic impact of its vaccination roll-out program.
“Australia’s vaccination program has failed to meet its targets and it’s incomprehensible that we will catch up. Our leaders need to accept the additional risks of delay, and act [accordingly].”
Buckland suggested additional support measures for vulnerable people and businesses should be considered in response to the delay.