British Pound Sterling
Sterling is on the push higher against the US Dollar this morning as an air of optimism surrounds the Greek bond swap.
The Pound saw no key data releases yesterday and it showed with a quiet UK session for cable. All eyes and ears were remaining on today’s Greek PSI deadline or news surrounding it.
The start of the US session was also quiet, but as news from Bloomberg did the rounds stating that the PSI participation was up to 58 % as well as the better than expected employment release in the US, Sterling began its advances. GBP/USD opened this morning back above 1.5800, moving to 1.5805.
The better than expected employment figures yesterday bodes well for today’s unemployment claims and tomorrow non-farm employment change – notoriously viewed as a lottery figure. Today also sees the UK’s decision on the official bank rate and asset purchase facility. Both likely to remain unchanged, but indications on further asset purchasing are likely to come from the release.
Last, but not at all least, we see the result of the Greek bond swap deal this UK evening time. As a deal looks likely to be struck, I can see Sterlings advances push higher. Certainly an interesting couple of days ahead after yesterdays reasonably quiet session.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5700 to 1.5960
The Euro remains weighed upon by the ongoing debt restructuring in Greece.
The Euro didnt start Wednesday well as data from Germany showed that factory orders unexpectedly fell. A slump in foreign demand saw a forecast figure of 0.6 % met with an actual figure of – 2.7 %. Having said this, little in the way of movement was seen versus the GBP or USD after the release as markets remained fixated on news regarding the Greek debt swap deal.
As mentioned above, the first news regarding Greece came during the US session yesterday as a Bloomberg release stated there was a 58 % PSI participation. This along with the US employment data helped the risk-on momentum and has seen Euro gain against the Greenback. As a deal looks to be getting closer and closer to being agreed, Euro is likely to continue these gains.
EUR/USD opened this morning at 1.3215. GBP/EUR traded within a 35 pip range yesterday below 1.2000 and we sat mid of this range this morning with GBP/EUR at 1.1969.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.1950 to 1.2030
Australian and New Zealand Dollars
The Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Dollar have erased some of their losses versus the Greenback.
To save repeating myself, this once again falls down to the latest news from the US and Europe as mentioned above. Risk being off since the start of the week has seen the antipodean currencies struggle for with investor interest. This has turned around and riskier assets are doing well at the start of today’s session.
The Australian and Kiwi Dollars advanced despite poor domestic data showing that the Australian jobless rate rising. AUD/USD opened this morning at 1.0650 and NZD/USD sat at 0.8260.
Sterling, as you probably had already guessed, has fallen against the antipodean currencies on the improvement in risk appetite and saw GBP/AUD open at 1.4852 and GBP/NZD 1.9148.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.4680 to 1.4920
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.9060 to 1.9230
Today’s Data Releases
AUD: Trade Balance
EUR: German Industrial Production m/m, Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference, Unemployment Claims
GBP: Asset Purchase Facility, Official Bank Rate, MPC Rate Statement
NZD: No data due for release today
USD: Unemployment Claims
By Alex Hartley: Corporate Dealer at UKForex
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