Preview of next week’s Australian economic data

A preview of next week’s Australian economic data, May 7 to May 11:

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS (ABS) RETAIL TRADE

Due: Monday

Period: March

Market forecast: Australian retail spending to rise 0.2 per cent.

Last result: Australian retail spending rose 0.2 per cent in February.

Retail trade rose in the month to a seasonally adjusted $20.988 billion, compared to a downwardly revised $20.954 billion in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said.

Economists had forecasted a rise of 0.2 per cent for the month of February.

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ABS BUILDING APPROVALS

Due: Monday

Period: March

Market forecast: Australian residential building approvals to rise 0.4 per cent.

Last result: Australian residential building approvals fell 7.8 per cent to 10,771 units in February.

This compared to an downwardly revised 11,688 units in January, seasonally adjusted.

In the year to February, building approvals were down 15.2 per cent.

Economists’ forecasts had centred on a 0.5 per cent rise in approvals in February.

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ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS SERIES

Due: Monday

Period: April

Market forecast: No market forecast.

Last result: Job advertisements rose for a third consecutive month, in a sign that hiring intentions by businesses are continuing to improve.

Total job advertisements on the internet and in major metropolitan newspapers rose 1.0 per cent in March.

This followed a 3.3 per cent rise in job ads in February and a 7.5 per cent rise in January.

In the year to March, job ads were up 2.8 per cent and are now at their highest level since November 2008.

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NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK’S MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY

Due: Monday

Period: April

Market forecast: No market forecast.

Last result: Business confidence lifted in March amid signs the US and European economies were improving.

The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Survey showed that overall business confidence rose two points to reach plus three points in March.

Business conditions – which take into account firms’ responses relating to trading, profitability and employment conditions – was up one point to plus four points.

Mining was the strongest sector, with an index reading of plus 36 points, followed by transport and utilities on plus 26.

Conditions were weakest in retail (minus 15) and construction (minus six).

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AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP/HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX (PCI)

Due: Monday

Period: April

Market forecast: No market forecast.

Last result: Australian construction remained weak in March, although the pace of decline slowed.

The Australian Industry Group/Housing Industry Association performance of construction index had a reading of 36.2 in March, up 0.6 points from February.

The report said Australian construction had been in contraction (with readings below 50) for almost two years.

Residential and commercial construction showed significant weakness, with house building registering its lowest level in six months.

House building showed a reading of 30.3, while apartments were 30.5 and commercial construction was 35.5.

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ABS INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES

Due: Tuesday

Period: March

Market forecast: Australian trade deficit to be -1.4 per cent.

Last result: Australia’s trade deficit narrowed in February, the ABS said.

The balance on goods and services was a deficit of $480 million in February, seasonally adjusted, compared with an upwardly revised deficit of 971 million in January.

Economists’ forecasts had centred on a surplus of $1.1 billion in February.

During February, exports were down 2.0 per cent in adjusted terms while imports were down 4.0 per cent,.

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FEDERAL BUDGET

Due: Tuesday

Period: 2012/13

Market forecast: The median forecast of 11 economists surveyed by AAP for the May 8 budget is an underlying cash surplus of $1.5 billion for the 2012/13 financial year.

Last result: Natural disasters over summer, slower economic growth and the lingering impact of the global financial crisis have all hit the 2011/12 budget bottom line.

While the government kept its commitment to produce a surplus in 2012/13, the series of events has crimped growth projections and left the 2011/12 books in a worse state than anticipated in the Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO).

The underlying cash balance for 2011/12 was expected to be a $22.62 billion deficit, equivalent to 1.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), the budget papers said.

This was much worse than the predicted $12.29 billion 2011/12 deficit in November’s MYEFO.

It was also larger than the $16 billion deficit predicted by a survey of 13 economists by AAP.

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ABS LABOUR FORCE

Due: Thursday

Period: April

Market forecast: Australian unemployment rate to rise to 5.3 per cent with the loss of 5000 jobs.

Last result: Australia’s unemployment was steady at 5.2 per cent in March.

The February figure was an unrevised 5.2 per cent.

Total employment rose 44,000 to 11.491 million in the month, according to the seasonally adjusted figures released by the ABS.

The forecast was for total employment to have risen by 5,000 in March with the unemployment rate at 5.3 per cent, according to the median of 12 market economists surveyed by AAP.

Full-time employment rose by 15,800 to 8.080 million in March and part-time employment was up 28,200 to 3.411 million.

The March participation rate was 65.4 per cent, compared with an unrevised 65.2 per cent in February.

The participation rate was forecast to be 65.2 per cent.

The ABS report showed aggregate hours worked by employed people rose 0.6 per cent in March, seasonally adjusted, after rising 1.1 per cent in February and falling 1.5 per cent in January.

Aggregate hours worked in March 2012 were 0.9 per cent higher than in March 2011 after a 3.8 per cent rise between March 2010 and March 2011.

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AUSTRALIAN OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT TO ISSUE TREASURY NOTES

Due: Thursday

A tender is planned for the issue of $2.0 billion of Treasury Notes maturing on July 27 2012 and 7 September 2012.

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AUSTRALIAN OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT TO ISSUE TREASURY BONDS

Due: Friday

A tender for the issue of $700 million of the July 2022 bond line is planned.

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